DAN’S VIEWS

“There are late adopters who are entering this market because they now see it as ‘the thing to do,’ says Arena’s Dan Zwirn⁠—⁠which underscores both the challenges and the opportunity.”

“The innovation around the thwarting of price discovery has been extreme,” says Zwirn, “and ratings agencies are frequently the ambulance that shows up late to the funeral home.”

“Despite optimism to the contrary, various cross⁠-⁠currents continue to affect the environment for real estate investing. This piece lays out our current views and topics from various conversations with our clients.”

“The implosions of inflated asset classes will offer value for years to come…in fact the market, if you think of it this way, is bigger than it’s ever been.”

“Zwirn says that areas of opportunity now include commercial mortgages, energy lending and asset-based loans⁠—⁠some with potential for 20 percent⁠-⁠plus return.”

“An implosion has started in structured finance, real estate, and venture capital⁠—⁠and a whole series of opportunities are arising from it.”

“Investors fear ‘bounciness.’ But there are things that provide a steady stream of return, yet with high volatility. You should like that, not run from it.”

“As the ‘everything bubble’ begins to deflate, Dan Zwirn said he’s seeing the best potential investments since the founding of Arena Investors in 2015.”

“This year’s ugly turn for markets hasn’t forced Arena to review its business strategy⁠—⁠instead, the environment has come into line with Zwirn’s thinking.”

“The explosion of asset/liability⁠-⁠mismatched offerings is one secular change that is very underappreciated in the fixed income markets. But there are four steps you can take to ensure you are not a victim.”

“The purported safety of today’s corporate bonds, as reflected in their ratings, does not match their actual quality⁠—⁠and liquidity will not be there when you actually need it.”

“The promise of disruptive technologies always seems to lure more money from investors than is actually warranted.”

“Zwirn felt that the market is evolving and pursuing more sustainable strategies…‘a lot less spaceships and flying taxis.’”

“The one most powerful thing in determining an underwriter’s probability of being repaid…is alignment.”

“There’s a real line between folks who are in the business of marketing funds, and folks who are in the business of investing.”

“In the alternatives universe…there is a dangerous illusion where investors are getting less diversification benefit than they think.”

“Over⁠-⁠regulation has led to these five changes that increase investment risk…that investors would be well⁠-⁠served to be aware of.”

“For the anticipatory analysis of what will go wrong in the next financial crisis…consult an essay with lead author Daniel Zwirn of Arena Investors…It’s a must‑read.”

“Zwirn believes investors need to better understand the secular changes in the markets since the financial crisis…or they will be overlooking bigger risks.”

“After a decade of low rates…too many investors are creating what sells rather than what makes a good investment.”

“Today’s great opportunities require a lot of digging…and they’re far, far away from the liquid credit markets.”