Research and insights from Arena CEO and Chief Investment Officer Dan Zwirn

Opportunity in Distress

“The implosions of inflated asset classes will offer value for years to come…in fact the market, if you think of it this way, is bigger than it’s ever been.”

“Zwirn says that areas of opportunity now include commercial mortgages, energy lending and asset-based loans—some with potential for 20 percent-plus return.”

“An implosion has started in structured finance, real estate, and venture capital—and a whole series of opportunities are arising from it.”

“Investors fear ‘bounciness.’ But there are things that provide a steady stream of return, yet with high volatility. You should like that, not run from it.”

“As the ‘everything bubble’ begins to deflate, Dan Zwirn said he’s seeing the best potential investments since the founding of Arena Investors in 2015.”

“While economies and markets continue to transition—painfully for many—Arena sees the largest opportunities in its history ahead.”

“This year’s ugly turn for markets hasn’t forced Arena to review its business strategy—instead, the environment has come into line with Zwirn’s thinking.”

“The explosion of asset/liability-mismatched offerings is one secular change that is very underappreciated in the fixed income markets. But there are four steps you can take to ensure you are not a victim.”

“Even conventional models suggest that private-market offerings, particularly for credit, are under-diversified. Now adjust those models for real-world realities—and the under-diversification is truly woeful.”

Buyer Beware

“The purported safety of today’s corporate bonds, as reflected in their ratings, does not match their actual quality—and liquidity will not be there when you actually need it.”

“Any investor considering the latest pitch for crypto, EV, metaverse ‘real estate,’ or NFTs (the list goes on) would do well to consider the many examples of destruction of capital that history provides.”

“The promise of disruptive technologies always seems to lure more money from investors than is actually warranted.”

“Zwirn felt that the market is evolving and pursuing more sustainable strategies…‘a lot less spaceships and flying taxis.’”

“Arena does not follow the modern value mentality. Instead, it buys for less than liquidation value…and looks for a clear path to value realization.”

“We were in a position to quickly shift to playing offense.”

“For those with the ability to comb through the scores of issuers, there will be many opportunities…”

“Arena scours the globe for opportunities that meet return-versus-risk standards for its private debt funds.”

“The one most powerful thing in determining an underwriter’s probability of being repaid…is alignment.”

“Having steered clear of much of the private credit bubble, Arena is now swooping in on other fund managers’ troubled legacy investments.”

“There’s a real line between folks who are in the business of marketing funds, and folks who are in the business of investing.”

“In the alternatives universe…there is a dangerous illusion where investors are getting less diversification benefit than they think.”

“Over-regulation has led to these five changes that increase investment risk…that investors would be well-served to be aware of.”

“For the anticipatory analysis of what will go wrong in the next financial crisis…consult an essay with lead author Daniel Zwirn of Arena Investors…It’s a must-read.”

“Zwirn believes investors need to better understand the secular changes in the markets since the financial crisis…or they will be overlooking bigger risks.”

“After a decade of low rates…too many investors are creating what sells rather than what makes a good investment.”

“Today’s great opportunities require a lot of digging…and they’re far, far away from the liquid credit markets.”

Featured Research